I want to tell you something that most sustainability professionals haven't processed yet.
The carbon market as a single category no longer exists.
It split. Quietly. Decisively. And the gap is widening every month.
The number that matters
$5.6 → the average spot price per carbon credit in the voluntary market today.
€90+ → the price per tonne in the EU compliance market.
€150–500 → what high-integrity tech-based carbon removals now command.
Three numbers. Same asset class. A price gap of nearly 100×.
That gap is not a temporary anomaly. It is a permanent structural split, and it is the most important signal in sustainability finance right now.
What most people see (noise)
➠ "The voluntary carbon market is booming."
➠ "Companies are buying carbon credits to meet their net-zero commitments."
➠ "Carbon is carbon — a tonne is a tonne."
What’s actually happening (signal)
➥ Carbon credit retirements in the voluntary market fell 7% in 2025 — despite a 227% surge in corporate climate commitments, according to Carbon Direct's 2026 VCM analysis. The market is stalling precisely when it should be accelerating. Companies are making promises. They are not buying the credits to back them.
➥ A new credit type now dominates the voluntary market for the first time: projects that reduce emissions of superpollutants now make up roughly 20% of all credits issued, up 180% between 2020 and 2025. The composition of the market is changing faster than most buyers realize.
➥ High-integrity credits now cost 300% more than low-quality alternatives. The weighted average spot price of $5.6 per credit masks enormous variation — nature-based offsets range from €7–24/tonne, while tech-based removals hit €150–500/tonne. Buying the cheapest credit is not buying carbon neutrality. It is buying reputational risk.
➥ The EU Green Claims Directive — active from September 2026 — will ban generic carbon neutrality claims based purely on offsetting, with fines of up to 4% of annual EU turnover. Companies that built their sustainability narrative on cheap credits have less than five months to fix it.
➥ CBAM certificates for 2026 imports must be purchased and surrendered from February 2027. Companies need verified embedded emissions data from suppliers now, not next year. Every month of delay adds compliance cost and supply chain risk.
➥ July 2026: the European Commission publishes its report on integrating permanent carbon removals into the EU ETS. If this passes, it creates the first large-scale compliance demand for tech-based removals, and prices in that segment will reprice instantly.
The carbon market is not broken. It is maturing. And maturity means the end of the era where any credit, at any price, counted as climate action.
The carbon market just split. Most companies are positioned for the old market, not the new one.
What this means specifically for your procurement strategy, your portfolio exposure, and your compliance calendar is what The Implication covers.
That section, along with Off the Record and On My Radar, is exclusive to SM360 Founding Members.
Founding Member pricing — €19/month — closes May 31.
Data references: Carbon Direct VCM Analysis (February 2026) · Sylvera State of Carbon Credits 2026 · South Pole Carbon Buyer's Guide 2026 · ZeroMission (January 2026) · European Commission / Regreener.earth
If this connects to decisions you are navigating right now, reply directly. I read every response.
More soon.
SM360 Signal Report · Published every Thursday
André Rodríguez
Founder | SustainMotion360